Report card on AFL teams halfway through the season:

GEELONG (1st, 44 points)

Projected finish - 2nd, 84 points

Why they're 1st: An excellent defence has been reinforced by Chris Scott's more risk-averse game plan. Veterans Brad Ottens and Matthew Scarlett are starring, rather than declining, while youngsters have stepped up. Surviving some nail-biters has helped.

What they need for a top eight finish: Finals are a certainty. The question is whether they will be minor premiers or perhaps even remain undefeated. The major obstacles are West Coast in Perth in round 16 and their final round blockbuster against Collingwood.

Why they could miss the finals: Can't happen, but there are a few potential concerns. The Cats' attack remains unsettled, with Cam Mooney's fitness and future uncertain and Tom Hawkins showing little. They must also hope Ottens can stay fit all year.

Make-or-break: rd 24 v Collingwood. Could very well decide minor premiership, perhaps premiership favouritism and could even be Geelong's final hurdle for an undefeated home and away season.

COLLINGWOOD (2nd, 40 points)

Projected finish - 1st, 84 points

Why they're 2nd: Basically because an incorrect umpiring decision cost them victory over Geelong in round eight. No one else has got close to the Magpies, who with the addition of Chris Tarrant and Andrew Krakouer, repositioning of Leon Davis and a seeming endurance edge over their rivals, look better than last year and deserved flag favourites.

What they need for a top eight finish: They'll certainly be there, and with Darren Jolly to return in the ruck, Dane Swan and Dale Thomas rejuvenated by a mid-year break and perhaps defender Nathan Brown back for finals, along with a feeling they are yet to hit top gear, they could be near-unstoppable in the second half of the season.

Why they could miss the finals: They can't, but if they slip up against Carlton in round 17 and the Cats in the final round, a fall to third is conceivable.

Make-or-break: rd 24 v Geelong. The Magpies' late-season win over Geelong last year was an important pre-finals belief-builder. A second loss for the season to the Cats in the final round might have the reverse effect and weaken Collingwood's aura.

CARLTON (3rd, 34 points)

Projected finish - (3rd, 74 points)

Why they're 3rd: Marc Murphy has stepped up to join Chris Judd among the cream of AFL midfielders, with a big supporting cast. The Blues are playing physically tougher football and showing more mental steel in close games. Plenty of speed and talent in attack helps too.

What they need for a top eight finish: A finals berth is all but assured, but the Blues will be desperate to consolidate a top four spot and double chance. If they beat Sydney and West Coast in the next two rounds, both in Melbourne, they will be hard to shift.

Why they could miss the finals: It would take the unlikeliest of form reversals. The bigger question is whether they can win one when they get there, after losing elimination finals in the past two seasons.

Make-or-break: rd 17 v Collingwood. It's not crucial to their top four hopes, but having lost to the Magpies and Geelong already, beating Collingwood or fellow top four club Hawthorn in round 22 would be an important step.

HAWTHORN (4th, 32 points)

Projected finish - 4th, 64 points

Why they're 4th: Apart from an opening round blip against Adelaide, the Hawks' only two losses so far have been thrillers against Geelong. The defence is mostly holding up well despite major injuries and stars Lance Franklin, Cyril Rioli, Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge are firing.

What they need for a top eight finish: Winning home clashes with the bottom three - Gold Coast, Brisbane and Port Adelaide - will be enough, and they also play the Suns away, so even with their high injury toll, finals look a formality.

Why they could miss the finals: The danger is the season-ending injury to Jarryd Roughead, combined with the absence of numerous teammates, might cost the Hawks a top four spot and a legitimate premiership chance. But their favourable draw will help.

Make-or-break: rd 19 v Fremantle. The Hawks might get away with losing to the Dockers in Perth and still get the double chance on percentage. But a win against the team that eliminated them from last year's finals would make it easier.

SYDNEY (5th, 30 points)

Projected finish 6th, 62 points

Why they're 5th: Five wins by 13 points or less, plus a draw, have the Swans well in the hunt for the top four, rather than scrapping for a spot in the eight. An ability to stifle opposition teams' scoring, particularly in tight last quarters, has been crucial.

What they need for a top eight finish: With gun midfielder Kieren Jack back from injury and ruckman Shane Mumford about to return, and the Swans' ability to get home in close games, they should not have too many troubles.

Why they could miss the finals: The Swans are far and away the lowest-scoring team in the top eight, so most of their wins are hard work. They have only three SCG games left, with their other home games tough tests against St Kilda and Collingwood at ANZ Stadium.

Make-or-break: rd 17 v Freo. This looms as the toughest of their remaining SCG clashes, although a loss would be unlikely to cost them a top eight spot.

WEST COAST (6th, 28 points)

Projected finish 5th, 64 points

Why they're 6th: Last year's wooden spooners have been given an enormous lift by the renewed fitness and form of Dean Cox, Daniel Kerr, Andrew Embley and Darren Glass. Kudos must also go to coach John Worsfold for overseeing the development of an impressive forward press.

What they need for a top eight finish: The Eagles' consistency so far this season suggests a late-season fade-out is very unlikely. With plenty of winnable games in Perth to come, and Hawthorn hit by injuries, fourth spot is within reach.,

Why they could miss the finals: With a mostly young team, the big danger is that if their experienced core get injured, the lesser lights might find life tougher. They are also yet to win outside of Perth and Adelaide.

Make-or-break: rd 14 Carlton. It would be a major upset if the Eagles downed the Blues at Etihad Stadium, but victory would put them firmly in the top four frame.

FREMANTLE (7th, 24 points)

Projected finish - 7th, 48 points

Why they're 7th: Despite a lot of pre-season injuries, the Dockers started impressively, winning four of their first five games, split only by a narrow loss to Geelong. The absence of giant ruckman Aaron Sandilands since round nine has been tougher, causing a drop to the fringes of the eight.

What they need for a top eight finish: With Sandilands not far from a comeback, last year's sensational debutant Michael Barlow about to return and home games against Brisbane and Gold Coast in the next three weeks, they should get there.

Why they could miss the finals: The Dockers' last eight matches are tough, with their four home games in that time against West Coast, Hawthorn, Carlton and Collingwood.

Make-or-break: rd 19 v Hawthorn. Potentially huge for both clubs, a Dockers' win at Patersons Stadium would make the remaining rounds less cut-throat.

ESSENDON (8th, 22 points)

Projected finish - 9th, 38 points

Why they're 8th: With favourite son James Hird at the helm, the Bombers looked inspired early in the season, but some injuries and a drop away from that early intensity and discipline have them in grave danger of dropping out of the eight.

What they need for a top eight finish: Captain Jobe Watson was superb early in the season and the Bombers' slide coincided with his hamstring injury. He's back now and that should help a lot. Elevated rookie-lister Stewart Crameri has slumped in recent games and needs to recover his early-season form in attack.

Why they could miss the finals: Aside from their slide in form, the Bombers have a very tough run home, including clashes with every current member of the top six.

Make-or-break: rd 17 v Adelaide. The Bombers' travelling record is terrible, but if they can manufacture a win at AAMI Stadium they could sneak into the finals.

ST KILDA (9th, 18 points)

Projected finish - 10th, 38 points

Why they're 9th: The one-point round one loss to Geelong seemed to sap much of the spirit from the Saints, after near-misses in grand finals in the past two years. Their famed intensity has shown signs of returning in recent weeks, putting them back in the finals hunt.

What they need for a top eight finish: They still boast plenty of star power and if the likes of Nick Riewoldt and Brendon Goddard return to their absolute best, a finals berth is very achievable. Their run home includes home games against both of the West Australian clubs and winning either would be a huge help.

Why they could miss the finals: Even coach Ross Lyon admitted last round's win against the Western Bulldogs was more notable for the result than the performance. The Saints' attack still relies too heavily on three players - Riewoldt, Stephen Milne and Adam Schneider - for goals.

Make-or-break: rd 20 v Fremantle. If the Saints can win at Etihad Stadium, they might just make it.

MELBOURNE (10th, 18 points)

Projected finish 8th, 42 points

Why they're 10th: It's remarkable the Demons are so firmly in the finals hunt, given some of the shockers they have put in this season, although a high injury rate has not helped. But while their best football has been all too rare and taken negative press to achieve, when they turn it on, they look good.

What they need for a top eight finish: The imminent return of ruckman Mark Jamar will make a massive difference to his side's midfielders. The Demons have a very kind draw, with six remaining games against sides currently below them.

Why they could miss the finals: The gap between the Demons' best and worst is enormous. There is ample evidence this season to show that a spate of injuries or a drop in intensity can make them beatable by just about anyone.

Make-or-break: rd 13 v Fremantle. The Dockers have not won at the MCG in four years. If that changes this Sunday, it could prove a killer blow to the Demons' finals chances.

RICHMOND (11th, 18 points)

Projected finish - 11th, 38 points

Why they're 11th: Young midfielders Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin are fast emerging as AFL stars and Coleman Medallist Jack Riewoldt remains a regular goal-scorer, despite being off his best in recent weeks. But missed opportunities against Port Adelaide and Sydney in Richmond's past two games could prove costly.

What they need for a top eight finish: The Tigers have enough winnable remaining games to still be an outside chance of their first finals appearance in a decade. The question is whether they can find the consistency to string victories together.

Why they could miss the finals: Richmond lack a dominant ruckman, their defence struggles against talented big forwards and their attack lacks an alternative marking target to relieve the pressure on Riewoldt. Throw in the side's overall youthfulness and a finals appearance is a long shot.

Make-or-break: rd 22 v Melbourne. If the Tigers are any chance to snatch eighth spot, they will probably need to win their two remaining games against the Demons.

NORTH MELBOURNE (12th, 16 points)

Projected finish - 12th, 28 points

Why they're 12th: The Kangaroos were hit hard by injury in the pre-season and have had four very tight losses. A touch more luck and they could have been sitting in the eight already.

What they need for a top eight finish: Three big wins in their past five games, interspersed by two tight losses, indicate the Kangaroos have the talent to make a late-season charge. But they are going to have to get much better at winning the close ones, and improved goal-shooting accuracy would help.

Why they could miss the finals: They have left themselves a lot of ground to make up. Their record against the AFL's best sides is very poor and they still have to face Collingwood, Carlton and Hawthorn.

Make-or-break: rd 13 v Essendon. If the Kangaroos can down the Bombers at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night, it will give them three victories in a row and a definite glimmer of finals hope.

WESTERN BULLDOGS (13th, 12 points)

Projected finish - (13th, 24 points)

Why they're 13th: The players that entered the season as the club's best forward (Barry Hall), defender (Brian Lake), midfielder (Adam Cooney) and ruckman (Ben Hudson) have all had little or no impact, partly due to injury, and the considerable slack has not been picked up.

What they need for a top eight finish: They are technically still a finals chance, and have winnable games against Adelaide, Gold Coast and Melbourne in the next three rounds, but they would need a major lift in confidence and form.

Why they could miss the finals: With seven losses in their past eight games, and no sign of improving form, the Dogs' slump is every chance to continue

Make-or-break: rd 13 v Adelaide. A win will not necessarily spark a revival, but a loss to the Crows could completely break what resolve the Bulldogs are still showing.

ADELAIDE (14th, 12 points)

Projected finish - 15th, 16 points

Why they're 14th: The Crows farewelled a host of proven veterans last season, confident a new generation of stars were about to emerge. On the evidence so far, they badly overestimated the talent of their young squad. Coach Neil Craig has seemed divorced from reality as he persists in spruiking the excitement he has in his players' potential, as the uncompetitive losses keep mounting.

What they need for a top eight finish: A finals bid seems way beyond the Crows, with their best hope that some of their youngsters show enough glimpses to suggest they can justify the club's hopes for them.

Why they could miss the finals: The fall-out could be set to grow for Adelaide, with very promising key forward Taylor Walker strongly rumoured to be bound for Greater Western Sydney. And Craig seems increasingly likely to lose his job at the end of the season, if not earlier.

Make-or-break: rd 13 v Western Bulldogs. As with the Dogs, Friday night's match looms as a potential breaking point. A big loss and Craig's coaching tenure might end sooner rather than later.

BRISBANE (15th, 8 points)

Projected finish 14th, 20 points

Why they're 15th: The off-season loss of Brendan Fevola, Jared Brennan, Michael Rischitelli and Justin Sherman was compounded by injuries to Jonathan Brown and Brent Staker in the opening round. The Lions' first win did not come until inspirational captain Brown returned in round nine.

What they need for a top eight finish: No hope of a finals berth, but after two seasons in the doldrums, partly due to a misjudged recruiting spree, they can hopefully use the remainder of the season to build for the future, this time based on youth.

Why they could miss the finals: The Lions' biggest fear now will not be missing the finals, but in losing any of the talented young players they do have, with Daniel Rich, Matthew Leuenberger and Mitch Clark all out of contract.

Make-or-break: rd 21 v Gold Coast. After losing their first clash to the Suns, this will be one remaining match for the Lions that really has something riding on the result.

PORT ADELAIDE (16th, 8 points)

Projected finish - 16th, 12 points

Why they're 16th: Aside from a big comeback in their round four Showdown against arch-rival Adelaide, the Power have shown precious little spirit this season.

What they need for a top eight finish: Finals are out of reach, but the Power will be hoping that some of their more talented players, such as Daniel Motlop, Travis Boak and Robbie Gray, can start regularly performing to their capacity.

Why they could miss the finals: Four-quarter performances have been almost non-existent for Port, with their round 10 win over Richmond in Darwin probably the lone exception. With the club also in a parlous financial state, keeping the bulk of their list together in the face of likely raids from interstate rivals will be an achievement.

Make-or-break: rd 19 v Adelaide. Another Showdown win would at least salvage something for their supporters and possibly help them avoid the wooden spoon.

GOLD COAST SUNS (17th, 8 points)

Projected finish - 17th, 12 points

Why they're 17th: As expected, a side dominated by first-year AFL players has copped regular thrashings, but has also produced two character-filled wins and shown enough to indicate they could be an extremely good side in three or four years.

What they need for a top eight finish: Missing finals was pretty much a certainty from the opening few rounds, but with matches against Brisbane and Adelaide, in Queensland, late in the year, they have the chance to build some momentum heading into their second season.

Why they could miss the finals: Avoiding the wooden spoon would be a good effort in the Suns' first season. It is not out of reach and would be more than most pundits expected.

Make-or-break: rd 21 v Brisbane. The Lions will be stirred up after their first loss to the Suns, which would make a second Gold Coast victory even more meritorious.

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