The Blues must win game one on Wednesday night or resign themselves to a record-extending fifth straight State of Origin series loss.

That's the warning from Billy "Queenslander" Moore.

The passionate former Maroons forward says if the Blues can't capitalise on the injury absence of super-smart Queensland hooker Cameron Smith while playing in front of their home crowd they can forget about the 2010 series.

"I think it's imperative if they want to win the series, they must win in Sydney, they really have no choice," Moore told AAP.

"NSW are putting all their chips on the table for game one, it's at their home ground, they'll have 85,000 lunatics there supporting them.

"If they can't beat Queensland without Smith, how can they then turn it around at Suncorp Stadium (in game two) with Smith back in the team?"

Moore said Smith was a vital component of the squad which won the past four series for Queensland and his absence would inevitably be felt.

"You don't have to draw a very long bow to realise why Queensland have set the record while he's been the number nine," said Moore.

"(Replacement) Matt Ballin is a fantastic kid who'll do the state proud. But Cameron Smith is a once in a generation player and they're pretty big boots to fill."

Moore, who played 17 Origins for Queensland during the 1990s, is best known for his "Queenslander" call to arms coming out of the tunnel during the 1995 series, which the Maroons won 3-0 against the odds.

He believes that even though Queensland's backline is close to the best in 30 years - up there with the 1988-89 sides featuring Wally Lewis and Allan Langer - they'll miss the combinations Smith has developed with Johnathan Thurston and Darren Lockyer and also club mates Greg Inglis and Billy Slater.

However, he was wary of the Blues, saying it appeared Blues coach Craig Bellamy had picked a side to play a certain style against Queensland.

"If Craig Bellamy has picked the team he really wants he's certainly not a bloke you'd disregard," Moore said.

"He's got an amazing track record for what he's done at NRL level, a bit like his mentor, Wayne Bennett.

"Wayne took a few goes to cracked it for his first series win in 1988, I think he had three unsuccessful years."

"There's such a similarity between their club record and how their State of Origin careers started."

Moore doubted NSW would try to smash Queensland up the middle despite picking a big pack of forwards.

"I think that worked for them in game three last year, but I think Queensland were off their game" he said.

Moore said if NSW wanted to play the aggression card they wouldn't have left out players like Paul Gallen and Greg Bird.

"Those guys love the tough stuff," he said.

"I think they're going to try and beat Queensland on the fringes.

"They've picked combinations from club football, the St George guys on the left hand side, (Ben) Creagh, (Matt) Cooper and (Brett) Morris those kind of guys.

"I'd be surprised if they go the muscle and up the middle as much as everyone's hoping they do.

"I've got a feeling they're going attack the fringes and try and catch Queensland out with not a long shifts but short, mid-shifts."

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