Rival skipper Mike Slade declared on Wednesday night that history-chasing Wild Oats XI was looking good for a record equalling third straight line honours win in the Sydney to Hobart, as the Australian maxi surged to a strong first night lead.

With the fleet propelled by northerly breezes of over 20 knots, Wild Oats was several nautical miles ahead of the other two maxis.

Victoria's 2003 line honours winner Skandia and Briton Slade's City Index Leopard were locked in a dogged battle for second spot.

The foreign boat held down second for much of the afternoon, with Skandia nipping ahead as nightfall beckoned.

City Index Leopard opted to stay well offshore, while Skandia gybed inshore shortly before 9pm.

Wild Oats XI, which is seeking to become only the second boat after Morna to take line honours in three consecutive years, led all day as the northerly breezes increased from 10 to 12 knots at the start.

The top three were well ahead of new American boat Rosebud, with last year's line honours runner-up Ichi Ban fifth.

The three front runners were all on pace to beat the 2005 race record of 1d 18h 40m 10s set by Wild oats XI, though a lot depended on the strength of the southerly change forecast for the early hours of Thursday morning.

"It's really easy to be ahead of the record pace at the moment, but it will really depend on what happens when we hit that shift and the front, Ichi Ban skipper Matt Allen said.

"We might see more of a south westerly so we might actually still be fairly quick, through that, but time will tell."

Slade, whose Fastnet Race record boat thrives in reaching conditions, feared the southerly change forecast for the early hours of Thursday would not be strong enough for his boat to wrest the initiative from its two Australian rivals.

"It doesn't look as if we're going to get much reaching or upwind work at all on this trip, it's going to continue quite a fast trip all the way down," Slade said.

"Wild Oats is able to go a bit lower and faster and it's suiting her much more than it is us, so well done her.

"At the moment she's quite clearly looking very good for line honours.

"I can't see anything on the prognosis that's going to change that, so we'll just have to play it by ear and see what is thrown at us when we get into the Bass Strait.

"But at the moment, we can't see anything that's going to be quite favourable for us."

The fleet of 82 had been reduced by two with the retirements of Mr Kite (broken rudder) and Berrimilla, which wrapped a spinnaker around her mast.

There was also uncertainty over whether Capriccio of Rhu would continue racing.

A decision will be made on Thursday, after it stopped in Wollongong to allow a crew member to go to hospital after he severed the top of a finger.

The crew of Spirit of Koomooloo expected it would be around 9am Thursday when the boat reached the area where their previous Koomooloo sunk last year.

"We'll have a little moment of silence for the old girl and then off we go again," Spirit of Koomooloo crew member Jamie Donald said.

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