Odds against Wales in House of Pain
The All Blacks are wary of second-Test syndrome as they face a Wales side promising all-out attack in the first rugby Test at Dunedin on Saturday.
The match, which will bring an end to 102 years of Test rugby at the famed Carisbrook ground, finds the All Blacks fearful of overconfidence as they follow up from their 66-28 drubbing of Ireland last week.
They blooded six debutants in that match, which became lop-sided very early when Ireland backrower Jamie Heaslip was red-carded.
The strength of the All Blacks was difficult to gauge against the under-manned Irish. While they scored nine tries, they let in four - and the pressure is on them to step up against a full Wales 15.
"That's a challenge for any young All Black," said assistant coach Wayne Smith.
"They come in and do well and we've seen a lot drop off the scene because they couldn't keep their feet on the ground or couldn't consistently replicate their performances."
Playmaker Dan Carter admitted the All Blacks were not happy with the way their defence cracked towards the end of the Ireland Test and that had been central to preparations this week.
"We've been working on ways we can improve. We don't want that to happen again this week against what is going to be a very competitive Wales side. We realise we must improve," he said.
With a dry ground forecast, Wales say they want a wide, open game, motivated by a desire to snap a woeful record against the All Blacks.
The Welsh have never beaten the All Blacks in New Zealand, and the last time they did manage a win at home was 57 years and 21 Tests ago.
"We're good enough physically and technically, it's about making sure we're error-free. It's facing that challenge, overcoming that and getting the monkey off our backs," said captain Ryan Jones.
Fullback Lee Byrne said they would be targeting the All Blacks out wide.
"We've got self-belief and confidence in our team and it's probably the best prepared side we've had," he said.
"We like to give it a go and sometimes it doesn't quite come off for us. We've got to learn to be more clinical but we're certainly going to have a go."
Carisbrook is known as the "House of Pain" because the visiting side rarely wins. South Africa and France in the past two years are notable exceptions, and Wales coach Warren Gatland senses a chance to make it three in a row.
"With Ireland scoring 28 points there's opportunities. In recent seasons the All Blacks' defence has been pretty hard to crack. They'll be disappointed that they did concede four tries," he said.
Gatland has made three changes to the Wales side that lost 31-34 to South Africa a fortnight ago.
Lock Alun Wyn Jones earned his place on merit while flanker Gavin Thomas and centre Andrew Bishop were promoted because of injuries.
The All Blacks have made only one change, giving flanker Victor Vito a start in his second Test after he came off the bench against Ireland.
Teams (15-1)
NEW ZEALAND: Israel Dagg, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Benson Stanley, Joe Rokocoko, Dan Carter, Jimmy Cowan, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (captain), Victor Vito, Anthony Boric, Brad Thorn, Owen Franks, Keven Mealamu, Ben Franks.
Reserves: Aled de Malmanche, Tony Woodcock, Sam Whitelock, Adam Thomson, Piri Weepu, Aaron Cruden, Richard Kahui.
WALES: Lee Byrne, Leigh Halfpenny, Andrew Bishop, Jamie Roberts, Tom Prydie, Stephen Jones, Mike Phillips, Ryan Jones (captain), Gavin Thomas, Jonathan Thomas, Alun Wyn Jones, Bradley Davies, Adam Jones, Matthew Rees, Paul James.
Reserves: Huw Bennett, John Yapp, Deiniol Jones, Rob McCusker, Tavis Knoyle, Dan Biggar, Jonathan Davies.
Referee: George Clancey (IRL)
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